As we approach 2025, the digital advertising ecosystem is facing transformative changes driven by technology, regulation, and shifting market dynamics. From the rise of CTV ad formats to the challenges of cookieless targeting, here are my predictions for the year ahead.
1. The cookieless era becomes the norm
By the end of 2025, cookieless targeting will be the standard. As cookie-based reach declines, ad technologies will shift strategies to contextual targeting, first-party data, and innovative AI-driven solutions. Companies relying on probabilistic ID methods will encounter new roadblocks as browsers further limit signals.
2. Generative AI takes creativity to new heights
Generative AI (GenAI) will redefine the creative process, enabling scalable and hyper-personalized ad creatives. Expect AI tools to play a critical role in automating asset production, enhancing storytelling, and optimizing campaigns at scale.
3. AI will redefine how targetings work
As AI will enable increasing capabilities of creating valuable and accurate synthetic data, technologies will be able to close the gap of addressability. Educated guesses will be done by AI models that will be as good or superior to effective 1st party data.
4. Advertising in AI agents: the next frontier
The rise of AI agents (like ChatGPT and other assistants) will open up a new advertising channel. While there’s currently no robust market for this, budget shifts will inevitably come—likely pulling spend from Search, Classifieds, and Retail Media. How big this shift will be remains to be seen. I predict that any website will start having chat experiences on which ads could be an additional income stream. That's the blue ocean that ad tech should start paying attention to.
5. Privacy regulation: A complex US landscape
Under the upcoming Trump mandate, privacy will not be a federal priority. Instead, we’ll see growing complexity as states push individual legislation. Advertisers will face significant challenges navigating this fragmented regulatory environment.
6. Pushback on curation from publishers
While curation has been celebrated as a win for advertisers, publishers will begin pushing back. Expect more scrutiny around revenue share models and how curated deals impact direct publisher relationships.
7. Retail Media growth slows and consolidation begins
The meteoric rise of retail media will start to plateau. Growth will slow down as saturation sets in and competition intensifies in major markets. Expect consolidation among key players as advertisers and retailers look for efficiency and scale.
8. CTV: Accelerating Growth and Format Innovation
Connected TV (CTV) will continue its impressive momentum. With more supply becoming available, advertisers will double down on this channel. Ad formats in CTV—from shoppable ads to interactive storytelling—will rise sharply, creating new opportunities for engagement and measurement.
9. Google avoids a breakup—but pays the price
Despite regulatory pressures, Google will not be forced to spin off its browser or ad tech stack. Instead, they’ll likely face substantial penalties and be required to implement initiatives that prevent monopolistic practices in the future.
10. Low visibility amid macro uncertainties
Navigating 2025 will be a challenge for industries facing macroeconomic uncertainties. As businesses address challenges with extreme caution and flexibility, visibility into long-term plans will remain limited. Companies will adopt a quarter-by-quarter approach, making strategic decisions with a short-term focus. Despite this cautiousness, digital advertising is expected to see fairly good growth, driven by its agility and ability to deliver measurable results. However, advertisers will tread carefully, prioritizing resilience and adaptability over ambitious scaling.
Final Thoughts
The next year will be pivotal for digital advertising. While technology continues to create opportunities—from CTV to AI-powered creativity—regulatory uncertainty, shifting budgets, and market consolidation will pose challenges. Those who innovate and adapt will come out on top.
